Hurricane to smash us

Cyclone Tomas -

Some bad weather is a comin. Cyclone Tomas is estimated to hit us early Monday morning (Sunday morning for you folks in the Promise Land). It is at least 7 times the size of Fiji! I have found a new favorite website through the US Navy stationed in Pearl Harbor. The latest update by the Naval Oceanography Portal is as follows.

131500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 179.0W.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (TOMAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A 130703Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE INTENSITY HAS NOT INCREASED AS EXPECTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW, ABRF, AND CPHC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 19P IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), BENEATH AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 19P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THAT IS WEAKENING DUE TO A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW TOMAS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 72 AND THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 19P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72, WHEN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL DECREASE AND VWS WILL INCREASE AS TOMAS BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO, HOWEVER THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE DIFFERS SLIGHTLY. THE GFS MODEL IS AN OUTLIER WITH A SHARPER TURN AND A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TRACK SPEED THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, WHICH INDICATES A TRACK OVER VANUA LEVU, FIJI WITH SPEEDS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS AT THE EXTENDED TAUS TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z. TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
See that little speck of green land in the center towards the bottom, that is Fiji, the islands of Vanua Levu nothward and Viti Levu in the south.

Now isn't that a mouthful of oceanography terminology. A simpler report from the Fiji Radio website is as follows:

Tropical Cyclone Tomas is now 600km North-Northeast of Udu Point at of 3am this morning, and with average winds of up to 110km per hour.

In the latest special weather bulletin released by the Nadi Weather Office it says that Cyclone Tomas is moving west at 9km per hour and gradually intensifying.

Compared to the last special bulletin that was released last night at 9pm, Tomas has changed direction.

Before, it was moving southwest with winds of up to 90km per hour but now its heading West, growing more powerful and packing winds of up to 110km per hour.

However Cyclone Tomas has slowed down. As of mid-day yesterday it was moving at 10km per hour before picking up speed as of 9pm last night, moving at 15km per hour but now its only moving at 9km per hour.

But our weather forecasters are still wary and maintain the Cyclone Alert issued yesterday is still in force for the whole Fiji Group.

On this forecast track the cyclone may bring damaging gale force winds over most parts of Fiji in the next 36 to 48 hours.

People are advised that flooding of low lying areas and coastal areas is likely to occur within this time period as rain becomes frequent.

For all those who have boats out at sea, you’re advised that a strong wind warning is in force for all Fiji waters with speed of up to 35knots. Rough seas and damaging waves are developing and you’re advised to take the necessary precautions.

Meanwhile senior weather forecaster at the Nadi weather office-Robin Nateniela says if Cyclone Tomas maintains its current path, its likely to make landfall in Fiji from Vanua Levu.

“At the moment we are just about to issue an alert special weather bulletin for Fiji which is basically an alert and mainly for Cikobia at this stage with an alert we expecting the on set of strong to gale force winds in the next forty eight hours where as the rest of the Fiji group is generally are not being affected at this stage but we will closely monitor the movement of TC THOMAS as it moves westwards perhaps in the twenty four to thirty six hours we can have a concrete detail on what path will it take and will it actually be in the next twenty four hours and the places that’s gonna be mostly affected.”

The Disaster Management office is also on full alert in anticipation of what Cyclone Tomas may bring to the Fiji group.

Although the cyclone is projected to hit the North of Vanua Levu by late Sunday, DISMAC Acting Director Pajiliai Dobui says all necessary precautions must be taken now to prevent any mishaps.

“For those who are living in low lying areas, I think its best if they move to higher ground and also for those who are living in residences that may not withstand the force of the wind, please be advised that it is best to consider moving to other residences or to your friends or to evacuation centers that are available while you still have the time.”

DISMAC has also alerted their different evacuation centers around the country who are on standby should the need arise.

“At this stage all the divisional operational centers is on standby. It has been activated and all are on standby. And similarly all the evacuation centers have been advised to be ready and available in case we have evacuees coming in tomorrow morning or sometime tomorrow in case of the cyclone.”

Dobui is also advising the whole Fiji group to be on high alert as the course of the cyclone can change abruptly.

Cyclone Tomas is projected to hit Northern Vanualevu on Sunday afternoon.

Well, now you know.